The Molchan Test

The Molchan-test The Molchan-test measures how well a forecast has approximated the observed target earthquake distribution. A selected forecast model is chosen as the reference and is used to define the measure of space; Molchan trajectories -- tradeoff curves between miss rate and the fraction of space-time occupied by alarm -- are computed for all other forecasts in a round-robin fashion. The Molchan-test does not consider the forecasted or observed number of earthquakes.